TknoFlyer's Hangar

Winter Flight Decision Path

Pop quiz:

Planning a flight from Leesburg, VA (KJYO) to Elkin, NC (KZEF) to visit family for the weekend. This is purely a social call. Plan is to leave Friday, November 10 around 6pm and the flight is generally about 2 hours 15 minutes in a Cessna C182. Rain showers are predicted for the early part of the flight.

Go or no-go?

Here is the route of flight. The blue line is the boundary of an airmet (text below).
 

Route in text form:
ETD 2200;DEP KJYO;ARR KZEF;ALTER ;FL 100
RTE CSN  V453  GVE  V476  LYH  V222  FREON
ETE 0158

Airmet text:
AIRMET ICE...OH WV VA NC
FROM FWA TO APE TO 30SSW AIR TO 50SE EKN TO 50SW RIC TO 30SW RDU
TO HMV TO HNN TO CVG TO FWA
MOD ICE BTN 100 AND 160. CONDS CONTG BYD 09Z THRU 15Z.

Doppler radar images:

Weather graphics:

TAFs:
TAF KIAD 082330Z 090024 00000KT P6SM BKN100
     FM1500 VRB04KT P6SM -RA OVC030
TAF KDCA 082330Z 090024 VRB04KT P6SM BKN120
     FM1500 VRB04KT P6SM -RA OVC030
TAF KDAA 090404 VRB04KT 9999 BKN120 BKN250 QNH3015INS
     BECMG 0809 12006KT 9999 BKN050 OVC100 QNH3013INS
     BECMG 1415 16006KT 9999 OVC030 620307 QNH3010INS
     BECMG 1718 16006KT 9000 -RA OVC020 620208 QNH3003INS T08/17Z
     TM03/10Z AUTOMATED SENSOR METWATCH 0904 TIL 0911
TAF KMRB 082330Z 090024 00000KT P6SM BKN120
     FM1200 VRB04KT P6SM -RA OVC030
     FM1500 VRB04KT 5SM -RA BR OVC015
TAF KADW 090101 VRB04KT 9999 FEW050 BKN120 QNH3015INS
     BECMG 0809 12006KT 9999 BKN050 OVC100 620505 QNH3013INS
     BECMG 1415 16006KT 9999 BKN020 OVC030 620208 QNH3010INS
     BECMG 1718 16006KT 9000 -RA OVC020 620208 QNH3006INS T09/17Z
     T01/10Z
TAF KNYG 082121 15005KT 9999 FEW060 BKN150 BKN200 QNH3015INS
     BECMG 0002 VRB04KT BKN100 QNH3010INS
     BECMG 1214 SCT050 BKN100 QNH3000INS
     BECMG 1820 SCT080 QNH2996INS T00/18Z
     LAST NO AMDS NEXT 0912
TAF KBWI 082330Z 090024 VRB03KT P6SM BKN110
     FM1500 VRB04KT P6SM -RA OVC030
TAF KCHO 082330Z 090024 VRB03KT P6SM OVC150
     FM1500 VRB04KT P6SM -RA OVC030
TAF KRIC 082320Z 090024 VRB03KT P6SM BKN110 BKN250
     FM1200 VRB03KT P6SM OVC080
     FM1800 16003KT P6SM -RA OVC040
TAF KLYH 082324Z 090024 14003KT P6SM SCT120
     FM0600 00000KT P6SM BKN120
     FM1500 17005KT P6SM OVC100
     FM2000 21006KT P6SM -SHRA OVC070
TAF KROA 082324Z 090024 12005KT P6SM SCT100
     FM0600 00000KT P6SM BKN100
     FM1500 16005KT P6SM SCT050 OVC080
     FM1900 19006KT P6SM -SHRA OVC060
TAF KDAN 082324Z 090024 14003KT P6SM SCT120
     FM0600 00000KT P6SM BKN120
     FM1500 17005KT P6SM OVC120
     FM2000 21006KT P6SM -SHRA OVC080
TAF KGSO 082343Z 090024 00000KT P6SM BKN100
     FM1300 22007KT P6SM BKN060 OVC120
     FM1800 22007KT P6SM OVC060
     FM2300 24005KT P6SM BKN080
TAF KINT 082343Z 090024 21004KT P6SM BKN100
     FM1300 22007KT P6SM BKN060 OVC120
     FM1800 22007KT P6SM OVC060
     FM2300 24005KT P6SM BKN080
TAF KHKY 082330Z 090024 VRB03KT P6SM FEW120 BKN250
     FM1500 25005KT P6SM SCT100 BKN200

Winds aloft forecast:
FT  3000    6000    9000   12000   18000   24000  30000  34000  39000
EMI 9900 3212-05 3014-09 2622-12 2826-23 2830-35 304349 283854 274153
RIC 9900 3306-03 2920-07 2723-10 2829-22 2938-34 305647 295454 285153
EKN      2414-04 2816-08 2826-11 2928-22 3040-33 305748 305857 295553
PSB      2710-07 3013-11 2722-13 2826-23 2929-36 304550 294255 284053
AGC 2010 2314-06 2816-09 2922-12 2830-23 2935-35 305449 305657 295053
ACY 9900 2508-05 2614-07 2424-12 2528-23 2629-36 253249 263453 263853
ORF 9900 2709-05 2818-05 2525-10 2637-23 2738-35 295247 284653 285054
ROA 1812 2714-04 3020-05 2823-09 2930-21 2947-31 306348 306557 296054
AVP 9900 9900-08 2409-11 2519-14 2624-24 2727-36 263751 263454 263753
CRW 2110 2715-01 3020-07 2723-11 2932-21 2947-32 306248 306656 306254
JFK 9900 0805-08 2411-08 2320-13 2527-24 2530-36 243349 253354 253553
RDU 9900 3010-03 3117-03 2721-09 2935-20 2949-30 306147 295956 285354
TRI      2715-01 3020-04 2925-10 3046-17 3054-30 307046 308155 306556
ILM 0507 2710-01 2519+00 2820-07 2940-19 2949-30 305947 295654 285056
FLO 9900 3312-01 3119+00 2816-06 2943-17 2946-29 306046 306655 295556
GSP 2209 3112-01 3121-01 2924-08 3046-16 3051-29 306746 317555 316557
CAE 9900 3315+00 3123+00 2925-07 2943-15 3047-28 306146 306855 305957
TYS 2214 3019+01 3021-02 3029-09 3048-16 3054-29 307145 318655 317158

INTERPOLATED DATA BASED ON 081200Z
VALID 090000Z   FOR USE 2100-0600Z. TEMPS NEG ABV 24000
FT    10000
EMI 2816-10
RIC 2821-08
EKN 2819-09
PSB 2915-12
AGC 2818-10
ACY 2517-09
ORF 2720-07
ROA 2921-06
AVP 2512-12
CRW 2920-08
JFK 2414-10
RDU 3017-05
TRI 3022-06
ILM 2619-02
FLO 3017-02
GSP 3022-03
CAE 3023-02
TYS 3024-04